Dateline: Copenhagen

September 2007 photo of summer ice breaking up in the Northwest Passage. Courtesy New York Times

The security concerns around the Arctic are quickly becoming hot topics in Washington but it was still a little jarring to hear Dr. Robert Huebert, a professor at the University of Calgary in Canada, speak so bluntly about the military implications of melting ice in one of the few truly placid regions remaining on the planet.

“We are already in an Arctic arms race,” said Huebert, during a panel discussion at the Center for National Policy on February 2. “We’re just not aware of it.”

Even more ominously, Huebert compared the current situation in the Arctic to Europe in 1935, implying that it is a powder keg ready to explode with dire implications for the entire world.  “Everybody is preparing for the worst-case scenario,” Huebert says.

By “everybody,” Huebert is mainly referring to the nations ringing the Arctic—the United States, Canada, Russia, Norway, and Denmark. Norway and Denmark have focused their security efforts on the Arctic, Russia famously planted a flag on the North Pole seabed in 2007 and has been more assertive in its Arctic policy, the United States is increasing its presence in Alaska, and Canada, Huebert said, is “talking a lot, but not doing anything.”

China, Japan, and South Korea also have interests in the Arctic, though these nations do not border the region. China and Japan have their eyes on the Arctic’s resources while South Korea has recently emerged as the world’s leading developer of Arctic commercial vessels.

The Council on Foreign Relations’ Dr. Scott Borgerson, who moderated the panel, said the Arctic has been losing 1,000 kilometers in ice volume each year since 1995. The ocean could be ice free during the summer months at some point between 2016 and 2030 and this would open up many new shipping routes and increase the military significance of the region.

Gary Hart, the former Democratic senator from Colorado, echoed Huebert’s concern about security concerns in the Arctic. Hart compared the Northwest Passage, which could become a major shipping passage in the next decade or so, to some of the most militarized areas of the last 60 years. He likened the Passage to the Fulda Gap, which, during the Cold War, was a strategic corridor separating East and West Germany, and the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway between Iran and Oman, which today is a major choke point for the oil trade and a focus for the world’s military planners.

“Quite often geography symbolizes how we see our security,” said Hart.

One of the main issues surrounding the Northwest Passage and a strong point of contention between Canada and the U.S. is under whose jurisdiction does the waterway fall. Canada says it is their water, while the U.S. maintains that it is an international passage.

Still, United States Coast Guard Rear Admiral Gene Brooks, who has served in Alaska, said the Canadian and American militaries share intelligence in the Arctic and the forces have worked together seamlessly. The larger problem is simply getting the average American to realize that the U.S. is, indeed, an Arctic nation. This goes beyond military security, he said, and extends to issues of culture and economics.

“We need a national debate on what to do as an Arctic nation,” said Brooks.

Vladimir Chouprov, from Greenpeace Russia, describes the challenges of forest fires in the Arctic nations

“Carbon Dioxide” is definitely the phrase of the day when it comes to climate change talks. This greenhouse gas has become synonymous with the challenge of rising global temperatures, and indeed, it is estimated to be responsible for nearly 40 percent of climate change. However, there are other greenhouse gases that have, until now, received less attention. These gases, such as hydroflourocarbons (HFCs), chloroflourocarbons (CFCs), nitrous oxides and other pollutants are crucial for quickly reducing climate change.

Black carbon is a form of particulate air pollution, released through the incomplete burning of biomass, biofuels and fossil fuels, such as coal and diesel. According to Professor V. Ramanathan, of the Scripps Institute of Oceanography, it is estimated to have as much as 60 percent of the global warming effect of carbon dioxide. Yet until recently it was not recognised as a warming agent at all. Although of significance across the globe, black carbon has a particularly concerning effect on tundra regions, which include the North and South poles, as well as mountainous areas.

“Over 90 percent of the black carbon emitted by nations in the Arctic-region (which lie above 40 degrees latitude), comes from agricultural, forest or peat fires”, said Elena Koblets, Director for Development at  Russia-based Bellona Foundation, an international environmental NGO based in Norway, at a UN climate summit side event this week. In the southern hemisphere, Koblets said, the main source is different. Far more comes from the burning of diesel for transport and power, as well as from biomass burning for heat and cooking.

When sunlight reaches suspended black carbon particles in the air, it is absorbed as heat, warming the air directly around it. Furthermore, when this sooty residue deposits on snow and ice, it darkens the surface causing the ground to absorb more light as heat and melt at a faster rate than it would otherwise. On a large scale, melt may accelerate the loss of stable water resources in the form of glaciers and snow. It can also cause changes in local ecosystem dynamics with each species responding differently to the changes in snow and ice availability.

Despite its significance, black carbon is barely on the agenda in Copenhagen. It receives a brief mention in one of the negotiating texts (the “LCA text”) and they are hoping to get it into one other (the “vision text”). At this late stage of the negotiations, observers said it seems too difficult to introduce new greenhouse gases but that strong voluntary actions and domestic policy change to address black carbon emissions is essential.

“Black carbon projects are not eligible for clean development mechanism funding at this time, but that’s the kind of step that the UN could take,” said Pam Pearson, of the International Cryosphere Climate Initiative.

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